Recession in India- Technical and Fundamental Outlook

Practically speaking, some people view the situation as extreme and expect the markets to improve by October 09 or so. But the people abroad are seeing the scenario to end by 2011 ( confirmed by one of my friend in US). Media is projecting that the inflation might slip to negative in the coming months. The growth which was inititally being projected at 7.5%, now the same figure has come down to 6-6.5%. But the question here is what is the authentic means of validating the correct scenario. Is it technical analysis or the fundamental analysis. This is the information what the technical analysis states. Going back to the fundamentals if we see that the demand is shrinking, SLR , Repo rate, CRR have already been reduced. People fear to purchase-many reasons follow-unemployment, rising disparity betwen rich and poor and other things. But the fact remains when there is a supply there has to be a demand to meet that. Both are dependent variables. The growth is a positive projected number as compared to the last year, that means there will be more output than last year. This means somewhere there is concentration of wealth which is happening. Take for eg the PSB's they are offering credit at low interest rates and people are buying it hence pushing the demand, the basics as the price reduces the demand increases. If you can observe a chain between the government and private sectors then u can notice that the demand is high for government commoditites(of any form), the main sufferers are the new entrants, companies with low net worth and some private companies affected by the existing govt rules and regulations ( Porters Model). Since Elections are also ahead, i dont feel that the situation will be in control.its something which cannot be explained by fundamentals. If u see the stock market nowadays its showing a slight boost it is at around 9300. Or we can view the same as a Business Cycle (Economic Cycle) the duration of which has to be seen over a period of time. We are in a trough right now , technical analysis can give an idea of when we will be heading up the sine wave. It has to be done on data and can be analyzed. All these macro economic factors are inter related. When there is so much turmoil which is happening like the oil prices going to a damn low, the gold prices soaring high and others. Probably Multiple Regression, MANOVA can throw some interesting facts.